by Tim McMahan, Lazy-i.com

Some call it a trip into the supernatural, others say it’s divine intervention… I merely know it as my annual predictions column!  It is here that I look into my magical Fender Squire Strat and see the future of Omaha’s — and the nation’s — indie music scenes. Ah, but before we get to 2024, let’s see how I did with my predictions for 2023: 

2023 Prediction: For a majority of young indie music acts, recording and releasing entire albums is costly and almost always a money loser. Beginning this year, we’ll begin to see a new focus on bands (and labels) promoting individual tracks rather than full albums.

Reality: Billboard would have you believe that albums are stronger than ever, based on acts like Zach Bryan and Taylor Swift. Fine. But for indie artists, things haven’t changed. Furthermore, the rise in vinyl sales (up 51% in 2021) has more to do with collecting than music listening. Music data company Luminate reported that 50% of LP buyers don’t have a turntable. 

2023 Prediction: With inflation through the roof and the erosion of album revenues, touring also has become a money-losing proposition for new bands. Watch as more artists cancel tours stating the current tour model is not sustainable.

Reality: Animal Collective was among those who cancelled a tour this past year, calling touring “an economic reality that simply does not work and is not sustainable.” The answer, for huge artists, is to simply ratchet up ticket prices. It’s sad when the Wall Street Journal publishes articles with tips on ways to afford concert tickets, including getting a second job or opening high-yield savings accounts. 

2023 Prediction: Big music festivals and national indie tours will be dominated almost solely by legacy bands in ’23 — acts whose heydays were one, two, even three decades ago. 

Reality: Huge fests, like Pitchforkfest, were still headlined by modern acts like The Smile, Bon Iver and Big Thief, who also headlined this year’s Maha Music Festival. That said, so far bookings at Omaha’s  newest large venues – Steelhouse, The Admiral and The Astro — have been dominated by legacy acts. 

2023 Prediction: Also in the bummer category, despite the vinyl explosion, downtown Omaha will not be able to sustain so many record stores. Watch as one of them closes its doors in ’23.

Reality: Ending a tradition that began in 1982, Drastic Plastic’s Vinyl Lounge, located above The Monster Club in the Old Market, closed shop in February. 

2023 Prediction: In a shrewd money-making move, a number of large local stages once known for hosting indie rock shows will begin booking full weekends of cover bands, Ranch Bowl-style.

Reality: Cover acts and tribute bands continued to be popular bookings on stages that used to be dedicated to indie rock shows. In fact, as the year came to a close, The Slowdown’s calendar was almost solely dedicated a Beatles tribute act. 

2023 Prediction: Omaha Performing Arts’ new Steelhouse music venue will open in May. Booked by Live Nation, it won’t be afraid to take chances (partially because it’s a funded nonprofit) and will pump new life into Omaha’s waning indie music scene.

Reality: So far, Steelhouse’s bookings have been anything but risky, focusing mostly on legacy projects and targeting sell-out crowds rather than taking chances booking large touring indie performers.

2023 Prediction: The Maha Music Festival will make a huge announcement after it enjoys yet another successful year in 2023.

Reality: Months after its (mostly) successful 2023 festival, Maha announced a move from Stinson Park at Aksarben Village to the new Riverfront Park in downtown Omaha for its 2024 two-day festival. 

2023 Prediction: Meanwhile, Outlandia Festival will be bigger and better in Year 2, adding on-site camping and a broader array of artists, including new breakthrough indie acts.

Reality: Outlandia had another successful year, and indeed added camping to its festival offerings. And while their headliners were older acts (Lord Huron, Modest Mouse, Jimmy Eat World) they also booked cutting-edge indie acts Horsegirl and folk monster Gregory Alan Isakov. 

2023 Prediction: Does Omaha have room for a third music festival? You better believe it. Watch for the announcement.

Reality: Does Nebraska Crossroads Music Festival, launched downtown last year, count?  

2023 Prediction: The band with the longest-running original lineup, U2, will finally come to an end.

Reality: U2 enjoyed a lengthy residency at Las Vegas’ eye-popping Sphere at The Venetian Resort. I’d still rather see them play at Red Rocks. 

2023 Prediction: Bands we’ll be talking about this time next year: David Nance, Lewsberg, Phoebe Bridgers (again), The Faint, Courtney Barnett, The Smiths, Parquet Courts, Hand Habits, Orville Peck, Matt Whipkey, Cactus Nerve Thang, Icky Blossoms and Car Seat Headrest.

Reality: Almost all enjoyed new albums and tours in 2023, with the exception of The Smiths (though Morrissey and Johnny Marr remained very active) and Cactus Nerve Thang (Let’s do it in 2024!).

2023 Prediction: A huge movie crew will arrive in River City in ’23 and begin filming a Netflix/Amazon/Hulu docu-drama series about the music scene during the early 2000s. 

Reality: Not this year, but it’s only a matter of time.

Final score: 9 out of 12 – impressive (if I do say so myself). So what about 2024? Hold onto your hats…

2024 Prediction: Spurred on by the successes of unions and other organized workforce movements, musicians – both indie and otherwise – will address how criminally low streaming revenues has made musician’s lives unsustainable. Next year musicians will finally organize to force streamers to pay up, but success will depend on the most successful performers willingness to take a financial hit. 

Prediction:  Musicians also will take on a unionized approach toward live music, resulting in better income streams for touring indie artists and those who support them. However, it’ll also mean even higher ticket prices for the rest of us. Are you willing to pay top dollar for the music you love?

Prediction: That’s not all. Musicians will come up with innovative ways to package merch to increase revenue. Leveraging the collectors’ market, bands (and labels ) will start packaging T-shirts and other non-music-related items with their vinyl releases. Are trading cards in their future?

Prediction: Its location won’t be the only thing different about the 2024 Maha Music Festival. To draw larger audiences to the larger Riverfront concert space, Maha will begin to more aggressively stray from the indie-focused line-ups that characterized past festivals. Also look for a revised dedication toward local music and the city’s music history.

Prediction: Not to be outdone by Maha, Outlandia will continue to become bigger and better, expanding to a three-day festival – Friday-Saturday-Sunday.

Prediction: With all these new music venues, the expansion of local festivals, and the continued growth of entertainment districts, businesses will be desperate for advertising outlets with the loss of The Reader (and the inevitable shuttering of the Omaha World-Herald). A new publication will emerge in ’24 focused on art, entertainment and dining, which will even include a (very limited) print edition. 

Prediction: Entering their first full year of operation, The Astro Theater will battle head-to-head with Steelhouse Omaha for the exact same music-loving audience. It’s the monstrous Live Nation (who books Steelhouse) versus the combined might of One Percent and Mammoth Productions (who book The Astro). Because this town ain’t big enough for the two of them.

Prediction: As if we didn’t already have enough music venues, next year watch for an announcement of the creation of a brand new high-dollar music venue to be located in the heart of Omaha, catering to a youth market.  

Prediction: Despite the closing of Omaha’s most prestigious jazz club — The Jewell — having gone almost unnoticed last year, an entrepreneur will team with an out-of-town company to open a new jazz-focused music venue that will act as an extension of Kansas City’s successful jazz scene. Omaha will finally have its first modern-day, successful jazz club.

Prediction: Is there a merger in Saddle Creek Records’ future?

Prediction:  Following the current trend, the number of local indie-rock bands will sadly continue to decline. Watch as metal and hardcore bands fill the void thanks to support from new all-ages clubs like The Blind Spot in Omaha and The Swamp in Lincoln and rise in bookings of national touring punk/metal bands. Omaha’s future sounds loud… and dissonant. 

Prediction: It’s not all bad news for local indie: The result both of indie music’s national dominance by women singer/songwriters and years of hard work by the Omaha Girls Rock organization, watch as a number of new female singer/songwriters emerge next year from our scene to receive national attention. It’s about time. 

Prediction: Other performers we’ll be talking about this time next year:  Low, David Nance, HAIM, Spoon, Alvvays, Desaparecidos, The Faint, Wet Leg, Talking Heads, Waxahatchee, Vampire Weekend, Neva Dinova, The Strokes, Interpol and Cactus Nerve Thang (again). 

Prediction: We’ll find out whatever happened to Eric Clapton.

Prediction: A local music journalist will finally begin writing his long-awaited history of the Omaha music scene circa 1993-present. Ah, but who will be the publisher?…

Prediction: Conor Obest won’t appear on Saturday Night Live but will appear on another prime-time TV show — masked or unmasked….

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Read Tim McMahan’s blog daily at Lazy-i.com — an online music magazine that includes feature interviews, reviews and news. The focus is on the national indie music scene with a special emphasis on the best original bands in the Omaha area. Copyright © 2023 Tim McMahan. All rights reserved.