Column 56 –Premonitions Pt. 1, the Look Back; The Good Life SOLD OUT; The Third Men at Goofy, Conor gets carded

Category: Blog — @ 1:16 pm December 22, 2005

Below, the first half of the annual “predictions” story, in column form because The Reader no longer does a “predictions issue.” I was planning on running the second half — predictions for 2006 — next week, but it might wait a week because my annual Year in Review story took up my column space in the next issue (it’s long, and includes a list of favorite CD and favorite shows of ’05). I got pretty lucky last year, as you see below (actually, “luck” had nothing to do with it).

Column 56: Crystal Ball Gazing, Pt. 1
Glimpses forward, glimpses back

One of the more popular articles I write each year is my “predictions” story. So controversial was it last year that those ignoble poets of the airwaves, Todd & Tyler, skewered me over it during their dreadful morning show. The sods. I’ll be using this column next week to give you, gentle reader, a glimpse at what lies ahead for ’06. But first, let’s look at how I did with my predictions published Jan 5, 2005:

Prediction: “Podcasting” will begin to replace traditional radio broadcasting, acting like an audio version of TiVo. Reality: In June, Apple added podcasts to its I-Tunes music store, giving easy access more than 3,000 downloadable podcasts. Today just about every popular radio show has a podcast counterpart.
Prediction: Watch out for Mash-Ups — a music craze where DJs/remixers take two songs by two different artists and combine them. Reality: In November, reported that the RIAA targeted, a site that hosts and distributes mash-ups, saying that their content violated copyright law.
Prediction: The first mix-and-burn custom CD kiosks will begin popping up at local coffee shops and music stores. Reality: Homer’s added its first such kiosk at their Orchard Plaza location, allowing users to select individual tracks from different sources and burn them onto one CD in the store.
Prediction: The break-out indie artist in ’05 will likely be Mastodon. Reality: Masta-who?
Prediction: U2, Bruce Springsteen and one other mega-band will be booked at the Qwest Center by year-end. Reality: U2 was last week. The Stones are Jan. 29.
Prediction: All of Courtney Love’s personal and legal troubles will end in ’05. Reality: She’s alive and kicking.
Prediction: Bands we’ll be talking about this time next year: Beck, Yo La Tengo, Nine Inch Nails, Cat Power, M Ward, Bob Dylan, Lou Barlow, Crooked Fingers, Ladyfinger, Anonymous American, Bright Eyes, The Monroes, Neva Dinova, Desaparecidos and The Golden Age. Reality: Beck’s up for some Grammy’s. NIN finally released With Teeth. Dylan got his own satellite radio show. Ladyfinger and Neva are on the verge of signing with Saddle Creek. And Bright Eyes just released a live CD (but that new Desa album never materialized).
Prediction: Bands we won’t be talking about this time next year: Red Hot Chili Peppers, Gwen Stefani, Eminem, Switchfoot, the Simpson sisters, Modest Mouse, Interpol, 50 Cent, Green Day, Avril Lavigne and U2. Reality: Mostly correct, other than Bono (the post-show buzz continues) and Green Day (more Grammys).

Prediction: Saddle Creek will cut a deal with the city allowing them to build Slowdown downtown, somewhere north of the Old Market. Reality: The bulldozers are currently digging away on 13th & Webster.

Prediction: Slowdown won’t be the only new live music venue that’ll hit the Omaha scene. Reality: A number of new venues opened, including Jobber’s Canyon downtown, Shag and The Spotlight Club, but none of them are a replacement for The Ranch Bowl.

Prediction: Saddle Creek Records will add not one but two new local bands to their roster, including their heaviest band yet. Meanwhile, sister label Team Love will out-release Saddle Creek almost two-to-one. Reality: Criteria joined the Creek fold in April, followed by Azure Ray’s Maria Taylor and Orenda Fink, with both Neva Dinova and Ladyfinger rumored to be next. Creek, however, out-released Team Love 11 to 4.

Prediction: Saddle Creek mainstay Bright Eyes will boast the label’s first gold record. Reality: Not yet.

Prediction: Camera crews from a national TV news magazine — 20/20, 60 Minutes, 48 Hours or Dateline — will attempt to blow the lid off the burgeoning Omaha music scene. Reality: A VH1 exec came through this summer to research a proposed expose of Saddle Creek that never materialized.

Prediction: KM3 will replace talentless blowhole Travis Justice’s “For What It’s Worth” segment with a new nightly arts & entertainment segment. Reality: KM3 deemed For What It’s Worth worthless, yanking it last month. But it’s another local TV station that’s in the early stages of developing a program dedicated to local music. Stay tuned.

Prediction: Scheduling conflicts will take their toll on one of the area’s most successful recording studios, causing it to close its doors in ’05. Reality: Presto! lives on, though it may be moving to Omaha this year.

Prediction: Two local video producers/film makers will gain national attention for their rock video work. Reality: Local videomaker Nik Fackler (The Good Life, Orenda Fink) will be directing his first full-length feature film this year.

Prediction: As many as six local bands will sign either to national indie or major labels. Reality: The big push never happened, though Criteria went to Creek, Venaculas is working with a start-up indie, and Emphatic is rumored to be working with a major.

Prediction: A non-Saddle Creek act from Omaha will appear on a late-night chat show while Bright Eyes will be a “special musical guest” on Saturday Night Live. Reality: We’re still waiting.

Well, 12 for 18 (if I stretch it). Not bad. Next week: Premonitions for ’06.

Tonight’s Good Life show at Sokol Underground featuring Mayday, Orenda Fink and Cocoon is officially sold out. If you didn’t get tix and you’re downtown, you may wanna swing by The Goofy Foot Lodge where The Third Men are playing a set that I have to assume will include at least one “holiday” song.

And before we go, looks like our boy Conor made it into the Village Voice‘s NYC Life column (scroll to the bottom): “Funniest thing I missed at the Vice holiday party at Fat Baby last Monday: When Conor Oberst was rumored to be denied entrance because he was already too tipsy and didn’t have ID, Vice staffer Eddy Moretti cut the music and shouted, ‘They’re not letting my friend Conor of Bright Eyes in. Let’s take this party somewhere else!’The crowd chanted ‘Bullshit!’ but the DJ turned the music back on. In the end, Oberst had already left, and everyone, including the ‘protester,’stayed.” He wouldn’t have had that problem at O’Leaver’s…

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